Gubernatorial Races 2010

While many people are focused on the midterm congressional elections already, there are other elections in 2010 that may be even more important: governors races in 37 states in 2010. These 37 races are especially important this cycle because the House will be reapportioned after the 2010 census, which means that the gerrymanders will crawl out from under their logs and bask in the sun, as they always do once in a decade. In nearly all states, congressional districts are set by law, which means the state legislature gets to draw the district boundaries and then the governor gets to sign or veto the law. If the legislature and governor are from the same party, they can do pretty much whatever they want to and can be expected to draw the boundaries to benefit their party. Of course, if a state has only one representative, like Alaska, there is not much they can do. But in a state like Florida, with 25 representatives now and more expected after 2010, there is enormous potential for mischief.

On the other hand, if the governor's mansion and state legislature are controlled by different parties, all bets are off. If the legislature comes up with a one-side plan, the governor will veto it. This pretty much forces the legislature to limit its dreams. Typically, the result is a compromise that protects all the incumbents and maintains the status quo, unless the state gains or loses one or more representatives, in which case there is much horse trading about the new boundaries, but the result can't favor the majority party too much or the governor won't bite. With so many governorships up for grabs this cycle, a dozen or more House seats hang in the balance.

The 37 gubernatorial races break down as follows.

• 8 Incumbent Democrats running for reelection
• 7 Incumbent Republicans running for reelection
• 11 open seats currently held by a Democrat
• 11 open seats currently held by a Republican

All off-site references open in a new window. Type CTRL-W in the window to close it.

Competitive Gubernatorial Races in Alphabetical Order by State

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenge	Notes
Jan Brewer (R)	Terry Goddard (D)	Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) got her job when term-limited Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) took a job in the cabinet. Since she wasn't elected, she may be vulnerable to a primary challenge, possibly from Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker or Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio. The most likely Democratic candidate is Attorney General Terry Goddard. Since the most recent person to be elected governor was a Democrat in an otherwise somewhat Republican state, this race has to be considered a tossup at this point.

California

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Meg Whitman (R)	Jerry Brown (D)	Open seat. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) is term limited so the biggest prize of all in terms of possibilities to gerrymander House districts is up for grabs. The Democrats nominated former governor Jerry Brown while the Republicans nominated former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who spent over $60 million of her own money on the primary. If she dumps an equal amount on the general election, she could be competitive. Despite being a very blue state, California has had many Republican governors.

Colorado

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
John Hickenlooper (D)	Scott McInnis (R)	Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) is not going to run for second term throwing the Democratic nomination wide open but Denver mayor John Hickelooper jumped in and scared off all the competition. Former House member Scott McInnis seems like the most likely Republican in the race but he has to win a primary first. Former representtative Tom Tancredo is running as independent and is likely to pull enough votes away from the Republican candidate to elect Hickenlooper.

Connecticut

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	With Gov. Jody Rell's announced retirement, this has become a wide open race with the Democrats having a good chance to pick up the governor's mansion. The winner of the 2006 Democratic senatorial primary, Ned Lamont, is the leading candidate in both the primary and the general election. The Republican side is completely open. Former ambassador to Ireland, Tom Foley (R) has already announced as has Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele (R) but others are waiting in the wings.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Bill McCollum (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Open seat. With Gov. Charlie Crist's decision to run for the seat of retired senator Mel Martinez, the governor's race was suddenly thrown wide open. Surprisingly, it settled down on both sides very fast, with Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Chief Financial Office Alex Sink (D) becoming the overwhelming favorites to get their party's respective nominations. Both are well know statewide. It could be a close race. A possible wild card: if Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) falls further and further behind the darling of the right, Marco Rubio, he might fold his Senate campaign and run for relelection as governor. McCollum would not be a happy camper at that point.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Pat Quinn (D)	Bill Brady (R)	Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) became governor when his predecessor, Rod Blagojevich, was impeached and convicted. So far, Quinn doesn't appear touched by the state's boundless corruption, but when you weren't elected to your current office, you are always vulnerable. The Republicans don't have a stellar candidate here, with Bill Brady eking out the narrowest of victories over his primary challengers. Still, Illinois is a fairly blue state and Quinn is somewhat better known than Brady, so the race leans towards Quinn.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chet Culver (D)	Terry Brandstad (R)	Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) is a moderate Democrat in a moderately Democratic state. However, his popularity is dropping and he could be vulnerable. The most likely Republican is former four-term governor Terry Branstad. Since Branstad is a proven vote getter, albeit a decade ago, he could be a tough competitor.

Maine

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Libby Mitchell (D)	Paul LePage (R)	Open seat. Gov. John Baldacci (D-ME) is term limited, giving the Republicans a shot in this once strongly Republican state. The Democrats nominated state senate president Libby Mitchell in a four-way primary. The Republicans chose the mayor of Waterville, Paul LePage. In addition to these two, three independents are also running.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Martin O'Malley (D)	(R)	Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD) will be running for a second term in this very blue state. Early in his term he raised taxes, which lowered his approval ratings somewhat. If former one-term governor Bob Erlich (R) wants to get his old job back, he might have a chance. Without Erlich, the likely GOP nominee will probably be Larry Hogan, son of a former Republican congressman and he will lose badly.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Term-limited governor Jennifer Granholm (D-MI) is leaving, which is probably a good thing for the Democrats as she was not all that popular. Also, the economy of her state is a complete disaster, although it is not really her fault that General Motors has had little interest in the past 30 years in producing cars that people actually want to buy. Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D-MI) was next in line but decided not to run. State representative Alma Wheeler Smith (D) is running but Lansing mayor Virg Bernero and State House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) may run in a primary. The Republicans have plenty of possibles here, including Attorney General Mike Cox (R). Congressman Pete Hoekstra is mulling it over. Michigan definitely offers the Republicans a good shot at a pickup.

Minnesota

Challender	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Some people are talking about Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) as a possible presidential nominee in 2012. He hasn't discouraged that kind of talk, and he decided not to run for a third term in 2010 to concentrate on his presidential run. The mayor of Minneapolis, R.T. Rybak (DFL) is running but there are likely to be more candidates shortly. The Republican field is fluid due to Pawlenty's unexpected withdrawal from the race. Former senator Norm Coleman (R) might hop in.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Brian Sandoval (R)	Rory Reid (D)	Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV) has been up to his ears in scandals since day 1, including a messy divorce in which the state's first lady refused to move out of the governor's mansion. Then there were shady land deals, a bribery investigation, illegal campaign donations, and more. Not surprisingly, he lost his primary. The Republican nominees is Brian Sandoval, a former federal judge. The Democrat is Rory Reid, son of the Senate majority leader Harry Reid.

New York

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Andrew Cuomo (D)	(R)	Politics is a blood sport in New York. This time will be no exception. Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) succeeded to the governor's mansion when Eliot Spitzer resigned after being ensnared in a prostitution sting. Then he got involved in his own scandal and decided not to run for election. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) is running for his Dad's old job. He is immensely popular in the state and will win easily. Currently the only Republicans announced are former representative Rick Lazio and Sufolk County Executive Steve Levy, both virtually unknown statewide.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ted Strickland (D)	John Kasich (R)	Ted Strickland crushed his Republican opponent, Ken Blackwell, in 2006 and has remained relatively popular since then. But with the Ohio economy in the toilet people need to blame someone and the governor is always on everyone's short list. Former representative John Kasich (R) is his opponent and since he is not in office now, he can claim he's not responsible for the economic mess. It is likely to be close.

Pennsylvania

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Dan Onorato (D)	Tom Corbett (R)	Open seat. With two-term governor Ed Rendell (D-PA), retiring in 2010, the governor's mansion in a key swing state will be up for grabs. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) was running but dropped out leaving the nomination to Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) The Dmeocrat is Dan Onorato, the County Executive for the county containing Pittsburgh. Neither candidate is an incumbent and Pennsylvania has many more registered Democrats than registered Republicans on account of Hillary Clinton's refusal to drop out of the presidential race in 2008. It is the gift that keeps on giving. Although Pennsylvania is a blue state, Corbett is better known than Onorato. Hard to tell what will happen.

Rhode Island

Challenger	Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(D)	(I)	Rhode Island is one of two New England states with a three-way race for governor. The incumbent, Gov. Don Carcieri (R), is term limited. Former senator Lincoln Chafee is trying to make a political comeback as governor. He will face off against the state Treasurer, Frank Caprio (D), and a Republican, probably John Robitaille, who has no chance. Chafee is still popular in the state and New England has had independent governors before, so he has a fair shot at winning.

Wisconsin

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Wisconsin law allows Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI) to run for a third term but he has decided not to. Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett (D) is running to succeed him since the lieutenant governor, Barbara Lawton is not interested in the job. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) is mulling a bid.

Vermont

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Vermont was one of the Republicans' few bright spots in New England. If four-term governor Jim Douglas (R-VT) had run for a fifth two-year term, he'd probably win, but he is not running, so the Democrats have the edge now. Possible Dems are former lieutenant governor Doug Racine, Secretary of State Deborah Marowitz, and Treasurer Jeb Spaulding. One Republican candidate so far is Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. There might be more later though.

Likely Democratic States in Alphabetical Order

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenge	Notes
Mike Beebe (D)	(R)	Gov. Mike Beebe (D-AR) is highly popular and is unlikely to attract any serious primary or general election challengers.

Hawaii

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. While it is hard for Republicans to win anything in Hawaii, term-limited Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) managed to pull it off twice. But she will be a tough act for another Republican to follow in this very blue state. Lt. Gov. James Aiona (R-HI) will try, but the odds favor one of the Democrats, which include Rep. Neil Abercrombie, and possibly Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann and various state legislators. But Abercrombie is the favorite in both the primary and the general election.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	(I)	Massachusetts is one of two New England states with a three-way race for governor. The incumbent, Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA), will face off against the state Treasurer, Tim Cahill, who is running as an independent. There is also a Republican in the race, most likely John Robitaille, but he has no chance so it is really Patrick vs. Cahill.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Lynch (D)	(R)	If Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) wants a fourth 2-year term, there is nothing the Republicans can do do stop him. He won his last two elections in landslides and the state is bluer than ever. Their only hope is that he retires as he has already said he is not running for the state's open Senate seat. The Republican bench in New Hampshire is extremely thin. There is a small chance that former senator John Sununu will run, but most likely he won't unless Lynch retires.

New Mexico

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Diane Denish (D)	Susana Martinez (R)	Open seat. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) is term limited. Lt. Gov Diane Denish (D-NM) is runing for the Democrats. What about the Republicans? Well, Obama carried the state in a landslide, the Democrats control both Senate seats, all three House seats, all statewide offices, and both chambers of the state legislature (by nearly 2 to 1 margins). The Republicans control nothing, so the best they could come up with is the Dona Ana County Distric Attorney, Susana Martinez. With both candidates female, New Mexico is sure to get its first woman governor. Martinez would be the first Latina, but the current governor is a Latino, so that is less of a breakthrough.

Oregon

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
John Kitzhaber (D)	Chris Dudley (R)	Open seat. Term-limited Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D-OR) won't be on the ballot in 2010. The Democrats nominated John Kitzhaber, who already served two terms as governor, from 1995 to 2003. The Republican nominee is Chris Dudley, a former professional basketball player making his first run for public office. It should be an interest race in an anti-incumbent year: a candidate who is the ultimate insider (although he is not responsible for the current mess) vs. the ultimate outsider. Kitzhaber will harp on the idea that being governor is a tough job and he knows how to do it whereas Dudley will attack Kitzhaber for being just another politician.

Likely Republican States in Alphabetical Order

Alabama

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Robert Bentley (R)	Ron Sparks (D)	Open seat. Gov. Bob Riley (R-AL) is term limited but Alabama is fairly blue at the state level, with the Democrats controlling both houses of the state legislature. However, at the federal level, the Republicans dominate, so the gubernational race is likely to be very competitive. Rep. Artur Davis (D) and Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) ran for the nomination and Sparks (who is white) beat Davis (who is black) by a huge margin. The Republican candidate, a state legislator and something of an outsider, beat the establishment candidate, Bradley Byrne, in a runoff.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Sean Parnell (R)	(D)	When former governor Sarah Palin quit her job, Sean Parnell (R-AK) became governor of Alaska. He is not likely to get much competition for his first run at the governorship.

Georgia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Roy Barnes (D)	Open seat. With Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA) term limited, former governor Roy Barnes (D) jumped into the race and won the primary. The Republican primary was indecisive, forcing a runoff between tea partier Karen Handel (R) and former representative Nathan Deal (R).

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Butch Otter (R)	(D)	Gov. Butch Otter (R-ID) will run for re-election and win. There is nothing the Democrats can do to prevent it. End of story.

Kansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Holland (D)	Sam Brownback (R)	Open seat. Term-limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) accepted a job in the Cabinet rather than run for the open Kansas Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), who is running for governor. The new governor is Mark Parkinson, currently a Democrat, but formerly a Republican. He is up for election in 2010, but has decided to retire. State senator Tom Holland is the Democratic nominee but this will be a very difficult race against Brownback.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Heineman (R)	(D)	Then Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman (R-NE) inherited his job when Gov. Mike Johanns became Secretary of Agriculture but Heineman ran on his own in 2006 and won convincingly. He is expected to run in 2010 and win convincingly again. The Democrats are likely to nominate a state legislator such as Steve Lathrop or Tom White, but neither one has much of a chance.

Oklahoma

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) is term limited so this will be an open seat in the reddest state in the country (McCain got 66% of the vote here, vs. a 65% in Wyoming and a mere 63% in Utah). In fact, Oklahoma is the only state in which McCain carried every county. Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D-OK) is running as is Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D), but the Republicans have a flotilla of prospects, including Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK) and Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), former representative J.C. Watts (R), and Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett (R). Nevertheless, the situation is not hopeless for the Democrats as they currently control every single statewide office.

South Carolina

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Nikki Haley (R)	Vincent Sheheen (D)	Open seat. Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) is term limited and more interested in hiking the Appalachian Trail than governing. South Carolina is where the South starts now that Virginia is trending blue and North Carolina has become a swing state (Obama carried both). As a consequence, the Republican nominee is practically a shoo in, so a vigorously contested primary occurred. The winner, in a runoff, was Nikki Haley, an Indian-American, who if she wins would be the nation's first female Indian-American politician to be elected governor. The Democrat is Vincent Sheheen, but he has little chance.

South Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Were he not term limited, the popular governor, Mike Rounds, could easily win a third term, then a fourth one, and then a fifth one. Despite the Republican tilt of the state in presidential elections, one of the senators (Tim Johnson) and the only representative (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) are Democrats. In fact, Herseth Sandlin may be interested in becoming governor, a job her grandfather once held. If she runs, she'll probably win, too. If she doesn't run, there are half a dozen Republicans interested in the job and they will slug it out and whoever wins the Republican primary is likely to win the general election.

Tennessee

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Tennessee is a bit of an anomaly: while dependably Republican in both federal and state elections, the departing two-term gvernor is Democrat Phil Bredesen. If former U.S. senator Bill Frist (R) had decided to run, he would probably have won, but he has decided not to. Likely Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, and Rep. Zach Wamp. Since the outgoing governor is one of them, the Democrats certainly aren't going to abandon this race., but currently they have no high-profile contenders.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Rick Perry (R)	Bill White (D)	The fight to unseat Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), the longest serving governor in Texas history, is going to be a humdinger. Perry first had to beat back a primary challenger, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson, which he did handily. Now he has to face off against the popular former mayor of Houston, Bill White. White is the first Democrat in years with a decent shot of being elected governor.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Gary Herbert (R)	Peter Corroon (D)	When Barack Obama appointed former Utah governor Jon Huntsman (R) as ambassador to China, he got rid of a potential 2012 opponent but created a special gubernatorial election in Utah in 2010. The man who became governor in his place, Gary Herbert, is running and is the favorite. The Democrats enticed the mayor of Salt Lake County, Peter Corroon (D) to run, but he is longest of longshots.

Wyoming

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Wyoming is the Republican's #1 pickup opportunity as Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D-WY) is term limited and the Democrats have nobody to replace him. Lots of Republicans are champing at the bit and whoever wins the Republican primary will be elected governor. Former Wyoming House majority leader Ron Micheli (R) is expected to announce soon.