Senate Races 2010

While the 2010 election is a long way off, one fact stands out right now: the Democrats will be defending 18 seats and the Republicans will also be defending 18 seats. However, more Republicans are retiring than Democrats, as listed on the Senate retirements page. In races where there is only one serious competitor for his or her party's nomination, that person is shown below, even though the nominee is not certain until the primary is finished.

The most competitive races are shown first, in alphabetical order by state. Then come the safe Democratic seats and then the safe Republican seats.

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Competitive Senate Races in Alphabetical Order by State

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Blanche Lincoln (D)	John Boozman (R)	Arkansas is a very Democratic state--except for presidential elections. The governor and both senators are Democrats as are three of the four representatives and the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. In 2008, the Republicans didn't even bother to field a candidate against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR). Nevertheless, Blanche Lincoln's popularity is way down and she barely beat back a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). On the Republican side, Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) is looking for a promotion to the Senate and has a good chance of getting it.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Michael Bennet (D)	candidate unknown (R)	Ken Salazar swam against the Republican tide in 2004, but since he has now been appointed to the cabinet, an appointee, Michael Bennet, will be running in 2010. Bennet has never held elective office before, so he has no experience campaigning. He will also have to fend off a primary challenge from former Colorado House speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), who is somewhat to the left of Bennet. Fortunately for Bennet, President Obama has already endorsed him in the primary. The Republican primary features Lt. Gov. Jane Norton and Weld County District Attorney, Ken Buck. Originally Norton was the overwhelming favorite, but in recent weeks, Buck has taken the lead.

Delaware

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chris Coons (D)	Mike Castle (R)	When Joe Biden became Vice President, Gov. Ruth Minner appointed a placeholder, Ted Kaufman, to keep the seat warm until Biden's son, Beau Biden, could come back from his tour of duty in Iraq and run. Unfortunately, when Biden came back he decided not to run, leaving the Democrats with a big problem. Eventually, Chris Coons, executive of the state's largest county jumped in the race. Sensing an opening, Mike Castle, the state's lone representative decided to run even though he is 70 and it takes 20 years to get enough seniority to have any real power. Initial polls show Castle way ahead of the lesser-known Coons, but Delaware is a very blue state, so that could change as Coons gets better known.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(R)	(D)	(I)	When Mel Martinez retired from the Senate earlier this year, Gov. Crist appointed a placeholder, George LeMieux, to serve out Martinez' term and then retire in 2010. After some hesitation, Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) decided to run for the job. Initially he was the favorite by a huge margin. Then Marco Rubio, the former state House majority leader got in the Republican primary and became the darling of the tea partiers. When Crist saw that he was 20 points behind Rubio, he dropped out of the Republican primary and decided to run as an independent. In a three-way race with Rubio and Crist facing Democrat Kendrick Meek, it could be close and will certainly be extremely bloody.

Illinois

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Alexi Giannoulias (D)	Mark Kirk (R)	After a lot of feinting, the Senate decided to seat Roland Burris as Barack Obama's replacement. Burris failed to raise much money and was dogged by scandals, so he decided to call it quits in 2010. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias won the Democratic primary and will face Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the general election. Although Illinois is a blue state, Giannoulias' family owns a small bank that is in financial trouble. Being associated with a poorly performing bank is not a good place to be right now. The race is expected to be close.

Indiana

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Brad Ellsworth (D)	Dan Coats (R)	Although Barack Obama carried Indiana, it is nevertheless a fairly red state. If Sen. Evan Bayh had decided to run again, he would have won easily, but he has had enough of how Washington works and decided to retire from politics. His departure completely completely shakes up the race and makes it a tossup. The Democrat is very likely to be Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) but the Republicans had a nasty primary won by former senator Dan Coats (R). In recent years, Coats has been a lobbyist for the banking industry, which is not likely to play well in hard-hit Indiana, but the race could be close.

Kentucky

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Rand Paul (R)	Jack Conway (D)	Jim Bunning is the only senator who is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame. While he was a great pitcher, he was hardly a great senator. His age and lack of fundraising drove him from the 2010 race, so the Republican establishment picked a succesor, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Only their plan was messed up by the son of Rep. Ron Paul, Rand Paul, who entered the race and thumped him in a primary. The Democrats also had a primary, which was won by state Attorney General Jack Conway. This is likely to be an unpredictable race with many twists and turns.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
David Vitter (R)	Charlie Melancon (D)	David Vitter is the only Republican ever elected to the Senate from Louisiana since direct election of senators began. He will certainly be under a cloud in 2010 because he was a frequest flyer at the establishment of the late D.C. madam, Deborah Jeane Palfrey. Count on his Democratic opponent to bring this up. But before even facing off against Melancon, he will have to beat back a challenge from Chet Traylor, a former state supreme court justice. Traylor, unlike Vitter, is not from New Orleans and may have serious support from rural voters unhappy with Vitter's dalliances as well as money from the business community. Still, at this moment, Vitter is the favorite.

Missouri

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Roy Blunt (R)	Robin Carnahan (D)	Four-term senator Kit Bond (R) has decided to call it quits. He will be 77 at the end of another term and he's not interested, so we have an open seat in a key swing state. The other Missouri senator is a Democratic woman, Claire McCaskill. Robin Carnahan (D), the current Missouri Secretary of State and a member of a Missouri dynasty is running and is the favorite. Father Mel was governor. Mother Jean was senator. Brother Russ is a congressman. Needless to say, the Carnahan name is pretty well known in Missouri. A serious primary challenge seems unlikely. Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) is the almost certain Republican nominee at this point. He, too, has dynastic tendencies. His son, Matt Blunt, was governor from 2005 to 2009. Missouri is the Democrats' best chance for a pickup.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Harry Reid (D)	Sharron Angle (R)	The gentlemen's agreement between the parties to leave each other's leader alone is gone, and Harry Reid is high on the Republican's target list. Reid's popularity in the state is low, so the Republicans are doing their best to unseat him. After a bitter primary, tea party favorite Sharron Angle emerged the winner, largely helped by her opponents' blunders. But her support for storing radioactive wastes in Nevada, something Reid and most of the state's residents strongly oppose, is going to be a real problem for her in the general election.

New Hampshire

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kelly Ayotte (R)	Paul Hodes (D)	Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) was going to become Secretary of Commerce and then he changed his mind. He abstained on the stimulus bill (which was de facto the same as voting for cloture) but took a lot of heat for it from NH Republicans. Then he withdrew and said he wouldn't run in 2010 either, creating an open seat. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) is running and is unlikely to be challenged by any other Democrat. Republicans lucked out when Kelly Ayotte, the state's Attorney General said she would run. However, she was appointed to the AG job and this is her first actual run for public office. The GOP establishment quickly rallied around her. However, she is being challenged from the right by Ovide Lamontagne, which could lead to a nasty ideological primary but Ayotte is by far the favorite for the nomination.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Burr (R)	Elaine Marshall (D)	Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped parties in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan (D) at the same time as Beverly Perdue (D) was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state's electors. After a tough primary, North Carolina's Secretary of State, Elaine Marshall got the Democratic nomination. It could be a close race.

Ohio

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Rob Portman (R)	Lee Fisher (D)	Sen. George Voinovich is retiring after two terms in the Senate, creating an open seat in a swing state. This will one of the most bitterly fought races in 2010. Former congressman Rob Portman (R-OH) is the nominee for the Republicans. He was also director of the budget during the Bush administration, which will be a handicap as the Democrats will accuse him of causing the recession. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher beat Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner for the Democratic nomination. Fisher is a poor campaigner but against a Bush retread the race should be competitive.

Pennsylvania

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Joe Sestak (D)	Pat Toomey (R)	Arlen Specter's switch back to the Democrats took everyone by surprise. He was elected to the Senate five times as a Republican in a blue state. Since jumping ship, he voted with the Democratic leadership nearly 100% of the time. But that didn't fool the voters of Pennsylvania. In a hotly contested primary, they selected retired Rear Admiral Joe Sestak, a current member of the House looking for another promotion. The Republican, Pat Toomey, is very far to the right and no doubt Sestak will tout his long naval career and moderate position. It is too early to tell how this race will turn out.

West Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Joe Manchin (D)	(R)	The death of Sen. Robert Byrd on June 28 has generated a special election to be held in November to fill out the rest of Byrd's term, which ends in January 2013. Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV) will be the Democratic Candidate. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) is the only Republican with a chance to beat him (although she comes no where close to his 80% approval rating), but she hasn't decided if she is going to run yet.

Safe Democrats in Alphabetical Order by State

California

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Barbara Boxer (D)	Carly Fiorina (R)	Barbara Boxer is a three-term incumbent and very popular in the state (she beat her opponent by 20 points in 2004). The Republicans had a nasty primary with Fiorina beating a moderate Republican and a tea party candidate. The mere fact that she can spend tens of millions of dollars of her own money makes her competitive, but her track record outsourcing jobs and getting fired for incompetence at Hewlett Packard will figure prominently in the race.

Connecticut

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Blumenthal (D)	Linda McMahon (R)	With Chris Dodd's retirement at the end of this year, the way has been opened for Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) to run for the seat. He was the odds-on favorite until he said he had served in Vietnam when he in fact had not. Former representative Rob Simmons (R) was going to run for the GOP nomination but then dropped out unexpectedly. Various others dropped out, too, until the last man standing was a woman, Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment. While wrestler Jesse Ventura managed to get elected governor of Minnesota in 1998, even with Blumenthal's oral blunder, McMahon has to regarded as a deep underdog despite her willingness to spend $50 million of her own money to get elected. That could even backfire on her as Blumenthal will accuse her of trying to buy a Senate seat.

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Daniel Inouye (D)	(R)	Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 but has said he plans to run for a ninth term. He will probably win easily unless Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) decides to run, in which case it could be a contest. Still, Republicans are scarce on the ground in Hawaii and in an Inouye-Lingle matchup, Inouye would be the favorite. Even if Inouye retires, the Democrats are likely to hold the seat as their bench is deep here.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Barbara Mikulski (D)	Eric Wargotz (R)	Barbara Mikulski is a four-term senator from a very blue state. In 2004 she got more votes than any candidate in the history of Maryland. She can stay in the Senate until she dies if she wants to. She loves her job as senator so the Republicans can't count on a retirement, either. There will be a Republican primary, but the favorite is Dr. Eric Wargotz, a Comissioner from Queen Anne's County. It is virtually inconceivable that he could beat the popular Mikulski.

New York-A

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chuck Schumer (D)	Jay Townsend (R)	The Republicans will probably put up a symbolic candidate against Chuck Schumer (probably Fox commentaror Jay Townsend), but the only value in doing so is for the candidate to get some statewide exposure to run for some other office later. Remember, this is the guy who ran the DSCC for two cycles and knocked off 14 sitting Republicans. He did so primarily due to his ability to raise mountains of money for other people. If he could do that for a mayor in far-off Alaska, imagine what he can do for himself. Schumer is invincible.

New York-B

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	(R)	Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton when she became Secretary of State. She has only one term of experience in the House, so she will be a target. However, in 2008 she got 68% of the vote in a somewhat (R+3) Republican district and she has a 100% rating from the NRA, so many Republicans clearly find her acceptable. She is also a prodigious fundraiser and has the complete backig of her mentor, the state's powerful senior senator, Chuck Schumer. The Republicans were hoping for Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki but neither is interested in the race. They will have to settle for either former Nassau County legislator Bruce Blakeman or the former Bear Stearns economist David Malpass who will duel it out in the Sept. 14 primary. Either way, Gillibrand is safe.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Ron Wyden (D)	Jim Huffman (R)	Ron Wyden is a popular Democratic senator from an increasingly blue state. It is doubtful that he can be unseated. He probably won't even be tested very hard. His Republican opponent is a law professor, Jim Huffman, who has never run for public office before. He might learn something about politics he can teach his students next year, but he is not going to be the next senator from Oregon.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Pat Leahy (D)	(R)	Pat Leahy was first elected to the Senate when he was 34. He can stay there until he gets bored with the job and there is no evidence that boredom is about to set in. He won by 46 points in 2004 and will do as well in 2010. The only Republican who has even an outside chance of taking him down is Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT), but Douglas is up for reelection in 2010. Like Jodi Rell in Connecticut, why would have give up an almost sure thing to be reelected as governor for a real longshot at a Senate seat?

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Patty Murray (D)	Dino Rossi (R)	Patty Murray calls herself "a mom in tennis shoes" but she shouldn't be underestimated: she is the #4 Democrat in the Senate Democratic caucus. Dino Rossi, a former state senator and two-time losing gubernatorial candidate, mulled about jumping into this race for months before finally making the plunge. He is a wealthy businessman and could self fund the race. Normally rich businessmen have little chance of buying Senate seats, but since he already been elected to public office and twice ran a statewide campaign, he could be competitive. Still, Murray is well known and popular in the state and is the clear favorite.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Russ Feingold (D)	(R)	What's a twice-divorced Jew who supports gay marriage, universal health insurance, and gun control and who opposes the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act doing in Wisconsin? Answer: representing the state in the Senate since 1993. Feingold is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, but Wisconsin voters seem to like that. He should not have too much trouble being reelected. One Republican, tea partier Ron Johnson, got the endorsement of the state GOP convention, but he might still face a primary with people even less well known that he.

Safe Republicans in Alphabetical Order by State

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Shelby (R)	William Barnes (D)	Richard Shelby was first elected to the Senate as a Democrat in 1984 by a whisker, but jumped ship and became a Republican in 1994 when the Republicans took over. While conservative on social issues, he is more moderate in economic issues, reflecting his Dixiecrat origins. He is also sitting on a huge pile of cash ($13 million) and won praise in his state for opposing the Wall St. bailout. He won reelection with 68% of the vote in 2004 and is likely to get that again. The Democrat is a Birmingham lawyer, William Barnes, but he has no chance.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Lisa Murkowski (R)	(D)	Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, the governor, who had just vacated the seat himself. There were many cries of nepotism at the time. In 2004 she won election on her own against Tony Knowles, 49% to 46%. Her only threat in red Alaska is if Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) decides that she needs some Washington experience to add to her resume prior to her potential 2012 run for President. While Palin was attacked for lack of experience during her Vice Presidential run in 2008, she does have experience in beating Murkowskis in primaries, having beaten Lisa's father, Frank in the 2006 Republican primary. However, Palin has said she is not running for the Senate. If she sticks with that, Murkowski is safe.

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
John McCain (R)	(D)	A bit out of the blue, John McCain now has to pay more attention to what was until now an easy reelection campaign. He is going to be challenged in a primary by former congressman J.D. Hayworth and attacked for proposing to make illegals citizens. If he tries to out-Tancredo Hayworth, he will antagonize the state's large Latino population, which will hurt him in the general election. If he goes back to supporting the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill (which he cowrote), he will infuriate the right wing of his own party. Still, with former governor Janet Napolitano (D) now safely relocated to Washington, the Democrats don't have an A-list candidate to run against McCain.

Georgia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Johnny Isakson (R)	Mike Thurmond (D)	Although Johnny Isakson is only a one-term senator and was elected in the year George Bush was reelected, he is a very conservative senator, which matches the Georgia electorate well, so it is unlikely he can be unseated in 2010. The Democrats are running state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, but he is a longshot at best.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mike Crapo (R)	Tom Sullivan (D)	Mike Crapo is a conservative senator who is a good match for his state. The Democrats didn't even bother running a candidate against him in 2004. This time they found a candidate in businessman Tom Sullivan, but he has no chance at all.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chuck Grassley (R)	Roxanne Conlin (D)	Chuck Grassley is a fixture in the Senate. Since 1986 he has always gotten at least 66% of the vote. He is unbeatable and recently negotiated a good committee assignment for the 112th Congress, so he has no intention of retiring. His challenger, Roxanne Conlin, a lawyer, served in the Justice Dept. and was a U.S. Attorney, so she knows about politics, but she has never run for public office. In a Democratic wave year she would have a shot at it, but in a Republican year she is probably doomed.

Kansas

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(R)	(D)	Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is retiring so Kansas has an open seat in 2010. No Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932. However, if Gov. Kathleen Sebelius had run, she might have won, but since she opted for Secretary of Health and Human Services, the winner of the Republican primary will be elected senator. Two House Republicans, Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran, will battle it out for the Republican nomination.

North Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tracy Potter (D)	John Hoeven (R)	Byron Dorgan's unexpected decision to retire in 2011 has opened up this race completely. Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) jumped in immediately after Dorgan's announcement. The state's sole representative, Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), who has a safe seat in the House decided not to run for it, so the Democrats had no one. Eventually, state senator Tracy Potter decided to go for it. He'll lose to Hoeven in a landslide, but he might get some statewide exposure which could be useful in the future. Without a doubt, North Dakota is the Republican's best pickup opportunity.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tom Coburn (R)	(D)	Tom Coburn is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He's safe unless Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) decides to challenge him, in which case he might have to work hard to keep his job. However, Henry has said he won't run. But people have been known to change their minds. Without Henry as their nominee, the Democrats have no chance at all here. If Coburn retires, all bets are off.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jim DeMint (R)	Alvin Greene (D)	Jim DeMint is the most conservative member of the Senate and fits his state well. He is completely safe. The Democratic nominee, Alvin Greene, is a totally unknown unemployed veteran. He'll certainly get 30% of the vote since some voters will never vote for a Republican, but he has no chance of actually winning.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
John Thune (R)	(D)	John Thune upset the Democratic minority leader, Tom Daschle, in 2004, violating a gentlemen's agreement that both parties had not to attack each other's leader. Consequently, Democrats would really like to go after him to get revenge. But potential candidate after potential candidate declined to run. In the end, they couldn't find anyone, so Thune will run unopposed.

Utah

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mike Lee (R)	Sam Granato (D)	Robert Bennett is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. Although he won by 40 points last time, he was apparently not conservative enough and came in third at the state GOP convention, which means he wasn't even be on the primary ballot. The nomination went to an unknown attorney, but given how red the state is, he is the overwhelming favorite.